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TD06F / TC Uesi
- Saturday 8th February 2020 - 10 pm
- Monday 10th February 10am
- Tuesday 11th February 2020 - 10am
- Wednesday 12th February 2012 - 11am NZDT
- Thursday 13th February 2012 10pm NZDT
- Twitter Feed
Currently named TD06F, a tropical low exists currently situated north of New Caledonia and west of Vanuatu. The future track of this low is uncertain, however there is a possibility it will end up in the Tasman Sea. At 10pm NZDT (9:00am UTC) on Saturday 8th February, the Fiji Meteorological Service issued these notes about the Tropical Low:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 080918 UTC. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 163.4E AT 080600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORT. TD06F MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS. REFER TO LATEST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD06F FROM: www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20032.txt.
Also issued was a TC forecast map
The animation below shows the last 18 hours, courtesy of the Himawari-8 Satellite and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
The Fiji Meteorological Service has named TD06F as TC Uesi, currently a Cat 2 storm , progressing southwards with increasing strength.
HURRICANE WARNING 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 091935 UTC. ******CORRECTION TO WARNING NUMBER***** TROPICAL CYCLONE UESI CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3 SOUTH 163.4 EAST AT 091800 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 16.3S 163.4E at 091800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS BY 101800 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.0S 163.3E AT 100600 UTC AND NEAR 17.9S 163.3E AT 101800 UTC.
(Source: Fiji Meteorological Service)
Tropical Cyclone Track is as follows (Source: Fiji Meteorological Service)
Himiwari-8 Sattelite loop is as follows (Copyright JMC)
Niwa Weather have published a potential track map, although any potential rainfall on NZ from TC Uesi is currently over a week away, and therefore there is alot of uncertainty in these tracks
Over the past 24 hours, TC UESI has taken a more westerly track, and is now forecast to move away from New Caledonia. Fiji Meteorological Service has published the following cyclone track map and bulletin
HURRICANE WARNING 013 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 101929 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE UESI CENTRE 976HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6 SOUTH 162.7 EAST AT 101800 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 18.6S 162.7E at 101800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS BY 111800 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.7S 162.6E AT 110600 UTC AND NEAR 20.8S 162.5E AT 111800 UTC.
The image below shows the last 6 days,, illustrating how TC Uesi has formed
TC Uesi continues to track south in open waters. From 1pm yesterday, TC Uesi was classed as a Cat3 cyclone, with winds approximately 140 kph. While the TC tracks down the west coast of New Caledonia it remains out to sea, and therefore wind impacts to land are minimised. The TC does drag moisture from the east, into its core, and as such there is a band of rain and thunderstorms to the west and southwest of it's centre, which could impact Noumea and surrounds. Specifically heavy rain is expected to fall on the island north of Noumea, but the capital itself should be protected somewhat by the intervening mountain range. These should move on quickly though (by 5pm today) so impact will be limited. Current synopsis from Windy.com is below, using the ECMWF model.
Latest TC bulletin from Fiji Meteorological Service is as follows:
HURRICANE WARNING 017 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 111946 UTC. SEVER TROPICAL CYCLONE UESI CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4 SOUTH 162.7 EAST AT 111800 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 21.4S 162.7E at 111800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 121800 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.5S 162.5E AT 120600 UTC AND NEAR 23.8S 162.1E AT 121800 UTC.
The updated TC track map follows
TC Uesi has now transitioned to an extra tropical low. Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has published the following:
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Uesi at 5:00 pm AEDT:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 28.6 degrees South, 160.6 degrees East , 360 kilometres north northeast of Lord Howe Island .
Movement: south southwest at 28 kilometres per hour .
Ex-tropical cyclone Uesi continues to track in a south-southwest direction towards Lord Howe Island though has slowed in the last few hours. It is still likely to pass over the island during the early hours of Friday morning.
Although the system has lost its tropical characteristics it is still expected to maintain an intensity equivalent to a category 2 tropical cyclone as it passes the island.
...and the cyclone track map.
Central pressure is estimated to be 977mb (approx). MetService have published a track of the extra tropical low, indicating that the storm will hit the West Coast of the South Island on Sunday 16th February. You can read more here.
If there are any further updates, these will appear in the community section of the site.