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TC Harold

TCHarold 06 April 2020 1800 hrs TCHarold 06 April 2020 1800 hrs

Sunday 5th April 2020 2130

TC Harold has rapidly increased in intensity over the past 24 hours, and is now a category 4 storm, sitting slightly west of  Santo in Vanuatu. Winds of up to 195kph are estimated. The video below shows formation from about midday on April 2nd, through to midday April 4th.
Met.gov.fj currently have responsibility for reporting on TC Harold. Their Forecast track map is below
TC Harold Forecast Track Issued 050420 0740UTC
 
The Fiji Meteorological Service have issued the following bulletin:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 050809 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 12F CENTRE 945HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 165.7E AT 050600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 1 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 95 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 155 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH EYE GETTING CLOUD FILLED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. HAROLD HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH CENTRE EMBEDDED IN B WITH NO BANDING FEATURE, YIELDING DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 16.1S 166.4E MOV ESE AT 04KT WITH 95 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 16.5S 167.6E MOV ESE AT 05KT WITH 95 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 17.1S 169.6E MOV ESE AT 07KT WITH 95 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 18.2S 172.3E MOV ESE AT 08KT WITH 90 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HAROLD WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 051400 UTC.

Tuesday 7th April 2100

During the last 48 hours TC Harold has increased in strength to reach  a maximum Cat 5 storm with sustained winds of 250kph. During this period it crossed over the island of Luganville, in Vanuatu. the video below shows this transition. Note that this video is in 10 minute steps, allowing you to see the details of what is happening in and around the eye
Currently TC Harold is about 480 km East of Port Vila (Vanuatu), 613km west of Suva(Fiji). Central pressure is estimated at 945 hPa, and estimated wind at the centre of around 200kph.
Fiji Meteorological Service has issued the following Tropical Disturbance Advisory at 7pm tonight
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 070734 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 945HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 172.5E AT 070600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 105 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 145 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT REDUCED IN VERTICAL RADIAL EXTENT. EYE GETTING CLOUD FILLED WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. HAROLD IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN CMG WITH W SURROUND AND BANDING FEATURE, YIELDING DT=5.5, MET=6.0 AND PT=6.0. FT BASED ON PT, THUS YIELDING T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 18.5S 175.8E MOV ESE AT 17KT WITH 105 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 20.3S 179.5E MOV ESE AT 18KT WITH 105 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 22.5S 176.2W MOV ESE AT 20KT WITH 95 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 24.9S 171.3W MOV ESE AT 21KT WITH 85 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HAROLD WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 071400 UTC.
The latest cyclone track map also follows:
TC Harold Forecast Track Issued 070420 0718UTC
 

Friday 10th April 2020 1315

TC Harold has now moved away from any major land features, but remains a Cat 3 Tropical cyclone with estimated average wind of 140km/h.  Since last report the storm has crossed Fiji as a Cat 4 and then strengthend to a CAT5 again, before loosing strength as it moved south east and into cooler waters. The following track map was issued by Fiji Meteorological Service at 2pm Thursday the 9th April 2020
TC Harold Forecast Track Issued 090420 0151UTC
 
The following video shows hourly captures from 1pm April 7th to 7pm on April 9th
 
 Met Service in Wellington New Zealand, have issued the following statement about TC Harold:

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 2356 UTC 09-Apr-2020

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Severe Tropical Cyclone HAROLD (CAT 3) was located about 700nmi (
1300km) to the southeast of Nukualofa, Tonga at 6am today. HAROLD is
moving farther away to the southeast at around 30knots (50km/hr)while
weakening.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC SAT 11-APR-2020
Severe Tropical Cyclone HAROLD now lies south of 25S (out of tropics),
and continues to move farther away to the southeast as it weakens.
HAROLD is expected to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone in
the next 12 to 18 hours. 

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