1st February 1900hrs
TC Ana was officially named North West of Fiji on 30th Jan, as a cat 1 TC. It has subsequently crossed the island of Viti Levu as a Cat 2 storm and then increased to Cat3 as it continued South East over Kadavu.
Image Source Fiji Meteorological Service
Fiji Meteorological Service issued the following tropical Disturbance Summary at 0330UTC today.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 010330 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2 SOUTH 179.0 EAST AT 010000 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 21.2S 179.0E at 010000 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 07 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 011200 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC AS TC ANA IS MOVING INTO AREA OF HIGH SHEAR. TC ANA INITIAL WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN LESS TAHN 33NM FROM DEEP CONVECTION YIELDING DT=3.5, MET=3.5 AND PT=4.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS DVORAK T3.5/4.0/D0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 22.7S 179.8W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 24.5S 178.0W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 26.7S 175.7W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 29.1S 173.3W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 010800 UTC.
Ana is under the influence of a westerly wind shear, and this will slowly increase over the next few days. This combined with the cooler waters, should see this TC dissipate over the next few days. Although there have been no recent microwave satellite passes, (meaning confidence on position is low) tracking models suggest at this point that the TC is unlikely to impact New Zealand.
It's a busy area of the Pacific at present with TC Ana SSW Fiji) accompanied by TC Bina (Fiji) and TC Lucas (Coral Sea)
3rd February
TC Ana has now ventured out to sea SW of Fiji, and is now and ex tropical cyclone