TC Judy

5 minutes reading time (930 words)

27th Feb 2023 09:00pm

Tropical Cyclone Judy was officially named today, by the Fiji Meteorological Service, whose domain it currently falls under. Currently North East of Vanuatu, the TC is expected to track down theisland nation over the next 48 hours.
 
The TC currently is pulling heat and moisture from tropical areas, allowing it to become stronger. As the cyclone moves south, this becomes less prominent
 
TC Judy 9pm 27th Feb Wind / Pressure
Screenshot 2023 02 27 203005
 
TC Judy 9pm 27th Feb Wind/Rainfall
Screenshot 2023 02 27 210106
 
Track map for Judy is as follows:
Track Map Judy 2023 02 27 211319
 
Met.govt.fj have issued a Tropical Cyclone Advisory:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 270803 UTC. TTROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY[JU-DEE] CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 169.6E AT 270600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS. ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUT FLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 300HPA. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED WEST-SOUTHTHWEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS DT=2.5, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.0. FT BASED ON MET THUS YIELDING T2.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
 
At this stage there is no indication that this TC will significantly impact New Zealand, however models don't yet agree out to Friday when the system will be near the country, so there is still some uncertainty.
 
More tomorrow night!
 

28th February 2023 10:00 pm

TC Judy now sits on and around the northern islands of Vanuatu. It has grown in strength in the last 24 hours and is now classed as a Category 2 cyclone
Met.govt.fj have issued an updated Tropical Cyclone Advisory:
 
 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 280737 UTC. TTROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY[JU-DEE] CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 168.3E AT 280600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS. ORGANISATION GOOD WITH LLCC LOCATED UNDER DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUT FLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 300HPA. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERARY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN MG YILEDS DT=4.0, PT & MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS.
 
Zoom Earth 2023 02 28 222514
 
Global models are beginning to agree on a path over the next few days. Hopefully they will stay in agreement, and this will give us a good indication on whether this TC will impact New Zealand or not.
 

02 March 2023 9:00 pm

Things just got complicated!. TC Judy has continued to move south on it's planned track, however another low has formed in it's wake, and out of that has formed TC Kelvin
 
windy 2023 03 02 205335
 
Judy continues on it's planned path , but is losing some energy as it moves further South East over cooler waters. Both TC Kevin and TC Judy are expected to follow similar paths as they are subject to the same forces. 
 
Further details from zoom.earth
 

Judy is located 648 km east of NoumeaNew Caledonia, and has moved southeastward at 26 km/h (14 knots) over the past 6 hours.

Judy is forecast to continue on its southeastward track as it progresses along the outer edge of the subtropical ridge to the east-northeast.

As Judy transits poleward, it will be in an increasingly hostile environment characterized by stronger wind shear, and increasing dry air entrainment, these factors will conspire to weaken the system to around 130 km/h (70 knots) in 24 hours.

After 24 hours, the system will begin its subtropical transition (STT) and a further decrease in intensity to 100 km/h (55 knots) is anticipated as the system crosses the 26°C isotherm.

In 36 hours, Judy will continue its STT and will continue to feel the effects of dry air entrainment from the northwest being wrapped into the center.

In 2 days, Judy will have weakened to around 95 km/h (50 knots) and become fully subtropical. Forecast models are in fair agreement that Judy will transit poleward of the subtropical ridge and in 2 days the system will accelerate east-southeastward as a subtropical system.

There is a slight spread in model output in 2 days resulting in an overall medium confidence in the track forecast. Reliable model intensity guidance is in good agreement with all members indicating a weakening trend through the forecast period. For this reason the JTWC intensity forecast is placed with high confidence.

Maximum significant wave height is 12.2 meters (40 feet).

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and published by zoom.earth

 

 04 March 2023 09:00 pm

Wrapping up for TC Judy,  the system has been reclassified as an extra tropical cyclone at 1pm Saturday 4 March.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Judy was located over open waters near 27.5S 173.2W at 1pm this afternoon (Saturday), moving east-southeast and weakening.

Screenshot 2023 03 05 103605

 

Screenshot 2023 03 05 110417

Ex Tropical Cyclone Judy is expected to move further South East into open sea, steered by the high pressure ridge, that exists between two large anticyclones.

 

Media Clippings 

03 March 2023

RNZ.co.nz - https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/485163/vanuatu-pm-kalsakau-says-cyclone-judy-impacts-are-widespread


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