02 March 2023 09:00 pm
Kevin is located 693 km west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu, and has moved east-southeastward at 19 km/h (10 knots) over the past 6 hours.
Kevin is forecast to mimic the track of Judy. As the system continues to transition its steering influence to the subtropical ridge to the east-southeast it will continue tracking generally southeastward over the next 2 days. During this time, the system will be in a favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and vigorous outflow aloft negligibly affected by moderate vertical winds shear. These factors are forecast to strengthen Kevin to 175 km/h (95 knots) and likely higher, eventually peaking in around 60 hours.
As Kevin continues poleward of the subtropical ridge in around 3 days, wind shear begins to climb, dry air entrainment increases and the system passes south of the 26°C isotherm, these factors herald the start of sub-tropical transition (STT).
Over the following 24 hours, these factors continue to increase and the system will continue to weaken over the next 4 days after which Kevin is forecast to be fully sub-tropical.
With the exception of NVGM to the north and HWRF to the south, numerical models are in tight agreement through the forecast period with all remaining members closely following the multi-model consensus. For this reason the JTWC forecast track is placed with medium confidence.
Reliable model intensity guidance is in fair agreement with several rapid intensification aids and the bulk of the models showing sharp intensification over the next 60 hours after which all members weaken the system through the forecast period.
The two exceptions to this trend are HWRF and GFS which show a much slower intensification over the next 60 hours and peak near or below 155 km/h (85 knots). For these reasons the JTWC intensity forecast is placed with medium confidence.
Maximum significant wave height is 7.6 meters (25 feet).
Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
04 March 2023 09:00 pm
Kevin is located 730 km southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu, and has moved southeastward at 44 km/h (24 knots) over the past 6 hours.
Kevin is taking a path very similar to its predecessor, Judy. The system continues its southeastward track as it hugs the outer edge of subtropical ridge to the east-northeast.
In 12 hours, Kevin will enter a more hostile environment characterized by stronger wind shear and will decrease in intensity to 220 km/h (120 knots) as a result.
In 24 hours, the system will begin its subtropical transition and further decrease in intensity to 185 km/h (100 knots) as the system crosses into even cooler (24-25°C) sea surface temperatures.
In 36 hours, Kevin will continue its subtropical transition and will start to feel the effects of dry air entrainment from the northwest being wrapped into the center.
In 2 days, the system will become fully subtropical. The JTWC track consensus members are in extremely tight agreement showing a continuous southeastward trajectory.
The NAVGEM tracker is the outlier with a more southward track than the other consensus members. Because of this, the JTWC forecast track to placed slightly to the left of consensus throughout the forecast period.
The forecast model envelope has a 50 km spread in 24 hours which progressively increases to 226 km in 2 days by taking into account the more southward NAVGEM track. As a result, the JTWC forecast track is set with high confidence.
The JTWC intensity consensus members are also in good agreement showing a decreasing trend as the system makes its subtropical transition.
Maximum significant wave height is 16.8 meters (55 feet).
Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
The current track map suggests a similar path to TC Judy, which means raking the islands of Vanuatu, and then heading to the South East to open water. You will see the map below suggests that this is a Category 5 storm, which is the strongest TC we have seen this season so far.
05 March 2023 10:00 pm
