TC Kevin

5 minutes reading time (1066 words)

02 March 2023 09:00 pm

 
Tropical storm Kevin was named today:
 
windy 2023 03 02 211111
 
Kevin is expected a similar path to Judy. Zoom.earth have a nice summary, based on infomration from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre.
 

Kevin is located 693 km west-northwest of Port VilaVanuatu, and has moved east-southeastward at 19 km/h (10 knots) over the past 6 hours.

Kevin is forecast to mimic the track of Judy. As the system continues to transition its steering influence to the subtropical ridge to the east-southeast it will continue tracking generally southeastward over the next 2 days. During this time, the system will be in a favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and vigorous outflow aloft negligibly affected by moderate vertical winds shear. These factors are forecast to strengthen Kevin to 175 km/h (95 knots) and likely higher, eventually peaking in around 60 hours.

As Kevin continues poleward of the subtropical ridge in around 3 days, wind shear begins to climb, dry air entrainment increases and the system passes south of the 26°C isotherm, these factors herald the start of sub-tropical transition (STT).

Over the following 24 hours, these factors continue to increase and the system will continue to weaken over the next 4 days after which Kevin is forecast to be fully sub-tropical.

With the exception of NVGM to the north and HWRF to the south, numerical models are in tight agreement through the forecast period with all remaining members closely following the multi-model consensus. For this reason the JTWC forecast track is placed with medium confidence.

Reliable model intensity guidance is in fair agreement with several rapid intensification aids and the bulk of the models showing sharp intensification over the next 60 hours after which all members weaken the system through the forecast period.

The two exceptions to this trend are HWRF and GFS which show a much slower intensification over the next 60 hours and peak near or below 155 km/h (85 knots). For these reasons the JTWC intensity forecast is placed with medium confidence.

Maximum significant wave height is 7.6 meters (25 feet).

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

 04 March 2023 09:00 pm

Zoom.earth have summarised the current situation as follows:
 

Kevin is located 730 km southeast of Port VilaVanuatu, and has moved southeastward at 44 km/h (24 knots) over the past 6 hours.

Kevin is taking a path very similar to its predecessor, Judy. The system continues its southeastward track as it hugs the outer edge of subtropical ridge to the east-northeast.

In 12 hours, Kevin will enter a more hostile environment characterized by stronger wind shear and will decrease in intensity to 220 km/h (120 knots) as a result.

In 24 hours, the system will begin its subtropical transition and further decrease in intensity to 185 km/h (100 knots) as the system crosses into even cooler (24-25°C) sea surface temperatures.

In 36 hours, Kevin will continue its subtropical transition and will start to feel the effects of dry air entrainment from the northwest being wrapped into the center.

In 2 days, the system will become fully subtropical. The JTWC track consensus members are in extremely tight agreement showing a continuous southeastward trajectory.

The NAVGEM tracker is the outlier with a more southward track than the other consensus members. Because of this, the JTWC forecast track to placed slightly to the left of consensus throughout the forecast period.

The forecast model envelope has a 50 km spread in 24 hours which progressively increases to 226 km in 2 days by taking into account the more southward NAVGEM track. As a result, the JTWC forecast track is set with high confidence.

The JTWC intensity consensus members are also in good agreement showing a decreasing trend as the system makes its subtropical transition.

Maximum significant wave height is 16.8 meters (55 feet).

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

The current track map suggests a similar path to TC Judy, which means raking the islands of Vanuatu, and then heading to the South East to open water. You will see the map below suggests that this is a Category 5 storm, which is the strongest TC we have seen this season so far.

Track Map 2023 03 04 223329

The track path is interesting. The image below is the BoM-A model of the path. For Judy, this path was along the top of the high pressure, pushing into the ridge between the two anti-cyclones. However as TC Kevin is slightly later, it's expected that the impact of the ridge is less pronounced, and this forces TC Kevin south and into the gap between the anti-cyclones currnently each side of New Zealand (but well off our coast) 
Screenshot 2023 03 05 122424
 

05 March 2023 10:00 pm

 
TC Kevin is now in it's decay phase - after reaching a Cat 5 with central pressure of around 918mb, it is now a Cat 3 TC:
 
ZoomEarth 2023 03 05 220848
 
It's expected to weaken rapidly over the next 24 to 48 hours. Zoom.earth has this to say based on the JTWC information:
 
Kevin is located 1104 km south-southeast of SuvaFiji, and has moved east-southeastward at 67 km/h (36 knots) over the past 6 hours. Kevin is currently in subtropical transition and is expected to complete this transition in the near future. Kevin continues its southeastward track as it hugs the outer edge of subtropical ridge to the northeast.
 
In 12 hours, Kevin will decrease in intensity to 100 km/h (55 knots) as a result of entering a more hostile environment characterized by stronger (40-50 knots) wind shear and lower (23-24°C) sea surface temperatures. Also at this time, Kevin will start to feel the effects of dry air entrainment from the west-northwest being wrapped into the center.
 
In 24 hours, the system will become fully subtropical. The JTWC track consensus members are in extremely tight agreement showing a continuous southeastward trajectory.
 
The forecast model envelope has a 46 km spread in 12 hours which progressively increases to 139 km in 24 hours. As a result, the JTWC forecast track is set with high confidence.
 
The JTWC intensity consensus members are also in good agreement showing a decreasing trend as the system makes its subtropical transition.
 
Maximum significant wave height is 10.7 meters (35 feet).
Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
 
 
 

Media Clippings:

5th March 2023

 
 

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