Cyclone Cody / TC Cody / TD03F

Outlook to 1am Sun, 16 Jan (NZT)

TC CODY is expected to track south to southeast during this period and it may intensify to Cat 2 or 3 system for a time. TC CODY is expected to move into TCWC WELLINGTON area of responsibility during Thursday and is expected to track towards eastern North Island late Sunday or Monday.

A large ridge of high pressure spreads northeast across the country during Thursday and persists through to Saturday, bringing mostly settled weather. A subtropical low (currently TC Cody) is expected to approach the waters to the northeast of New Zealand during Saturday. The low is likely to move southwards to affect the east of the North Island late Sunday and early next week, bringing heavy rain, strong winds and large waves about the east coast of the North Island, and the impact could be significant. There is low confidence of warning amounts of rain and severe southeasterly gales about Gisborne on Sunday at this stage.

There are still uncertainties regarding the track and the depth of the subtropical low, people are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

13th Jan 2022 09:30pm

Metservice have updated their Severe Weather Outlook:

Current status of cyclone activity

Tropical cyclone Cody (990hPa, category 1) was located over open waters about 830km SSW of Nadi this morning, moving south-southeast.

Forecast to 1am Sat, 15 Jan (NZT)

Tropical cyclone Cody is expected to move south-southeast over the next couple of days, over open waters to the north of New Zealand. Cooler seas and strong winds aloft mean the system will lose its tropical cyclone characteristics, but it will still remain a deep low as it moves south.

Outlook to 1am Tue, 18 Jan (NZT)

Cyclone Cody is expected to approach New Zealand this weekend and should move across the North Island on Monday, although there still remains some uncertainty regarding the path of the system across the country and how quickly it will move past.

Track map

Metservice have noted that watches and warnings will be issued starting tomorrow. These appear on the weather.net.nz website, however as always you should not rely on these and refer to the Metservice website directly for the most up to date notifications. This is likely to be a damaging weather event for parts of New Zealand with strong gales and storm force winds with heavy rain in places and potential for coastal inundation.

Model Commentary

There are a couple of weather models we keep an eye on. The ECMWF model is usually more accurate and it suggests the cyclone moves down the east coast to about East Cape, before being pushed away by an approaching high pressure. The GFS model suggests that the cyclone takes a slightly slower path, along the same route, but reaches further south before being pushed away. For example the GFS model suggests heavy wnd and rain for Wellington, early Tuesday, while the ECMWF model suggest much lighter winds for Wellington with alot less rainfall.

The MetVUW models produced out of Victoria University of Wellington, suggest a similar path to the GFS models, which would be more impactful to a larger area of the North Island

Areas around East Cape, and Eastern areas of the North Island should prepare for a rough period of weather from late Sunday through to Tuesday with winds approaching 60kph, along with heavy rainfall.

Models will firm up alot over the next 24 to 48 hours and we'll provide more details on what they are telling us over that period. You can check these out directly via windy.com

14 Jan 2022 11:30pm

Not too much more to report today. Cody has lost it's Tropical Cyclone status as it slowly moves south - it's now called an ex tropical cyclone or just Cyclone Cody! This isn't unusual for Tropical Cyclones. They need warm water and ability to maintain rotation around a common centre. As they move south, they often encounter colder waters, reducing the energy available, and winds that shear the top off (or push the top sideways relative to the centre), making it difficult to maintain a strong rotating centre.

The first watches have been issued by the MetService for the areas of and immediately around East Cape. These suggest strong winds and rain, with a medium confidence. The predicted path continues to more closely follow the ECMWF model which pushes the centre of the storm out towards the east of New Zealand, just off the East Coast of the North Island.

The system is still a couple of days away so there is still some possibililty of variability in terms of impacts.